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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2014–Dec 16th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

In Alpine areas very dense slabs sit on the weak basal layers. Forecasters are slowly gaining confidence in this terrain but the potential for large full-depth avalanches is still there.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

No precipitation is in the in the medium-term forecast. Temperatures on Tuesday should reach -5 degrees in the Alpine with light SW winds and a mix of sun and cloud.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new.

Snowpack Summary

Very dense wind slabs are found in the Alpine, but distribution and depth are highly variable. These wind slabs are providing some bridging strength over the basal weak layers, but human triggering is still possible especially from shallow snowpack areas. The Dec 13th rain crust extends up to between 2200 and 2100m and makes for very poor skiing below this elevation. The basal weak layer combo of weak facets sitting on November rain crust is still the primary concern due to the potential for full depth avalanches should a failure occur.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.