The new snow load is the question right now. Given the touchy snowpack, even a light load will tip the scales and cause a natural cycle. It would be fair to place treeline at the upper end of Considerable right now. Not the time to push terrain.
Weather Forecast
A bit more snow will accompany the cold front passing through over night. In all we can expect 10cm's by tomorrow. The good news is that this snow is coming in with almost no wind, even in the alpine. Tomorrow's temps will hover around -14 at valley bottom. Trace amounts through the week-end. Light winds throughout the week-end as well.
Avalanche Summary
Today we came across 3 large avalanches that are thought to be from the last 24hrs. The debris was fresh despite the new snow. All 3 avalanches came out of terrain that had previously avalanched. South side of Hero's knob, SE-S asp, alpine start zones, sz2.5.
Snowpack Summary
Steady snow today on the Spray has currently left 4cm's (as of 3pm) with another 6 expected overnight. So far this new appears to be bonding well to the snow from last week. The snow from last week has either settled or been wind distributed to form a cohesive slab. The density of this slab increase with altitude and exposure to wind. The common theme at all elevations/aspects is the extremely poor bond with the snow underneath. Today marks the 7th day since the burial of the facets and there has been no improvement with the bond. On all of our field trips this week we have experienced LOTS of whumphing, cracking and even remote avalanches. The weak layer is made up of facets and in the odd place broken down surface hoar. One of the weaker snowpacks in recent memory. Snow depths are: Burstall Pass-165, Burstall Parking-118.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.