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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2016–Jan 22nd, 2016

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Wait a couple days to gather more post-storm information before venturing out into bigger terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Friday: Rain or snow ending in the morning (20-30 mm), then cloudy. The freezing level dips from 2000 m to 1400 m. Winds are moderate SE easing to light from the SW. Saturday: Cloudy with sunny breaks. The freezing level is around 1200 m and winds remain light from the W-SW. Sunday: Cloudy with sunny breaks. The freezing level is around 1000 m and winds are light from the S-SW.

Avalanche Summary

We will have to wait a day or two to determine how extensive the avalanche cycle on Thursday was. My guess is that we saw widespread activity at all elevations with slides up to at least size 3. Natural activity should taper off heading into the weekend. Hopefully the buried surface hoar problems were cleaned out, but I would treat any slope that did not release as being suspect, especially at treeline.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack may look quite different after Thursday's storm. Expect dense new wind and storm slabs, and fresh cornice growth at upper elevations. Heavy loading from snow (and potentially rain) may have flushed-out the mid- and early-January surface hoar/facet layers that were buried 60-100 cm deep. However, don't rule these layers out right away. It may still be possible to trigger shallow slopes that did not release naturally. Rain has probably saturated the upper snowpack on lower elevation slopes (below 1500-1800 m).The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallower snowpack areas that may be more faceted.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.