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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2013–Dec 16th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

We are near the tipping point of an increase in avalanche danger.  When the new snow does arrive, we can expect avalanche danger in Alpine terrain to approach considerable. 

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A trace of new snow is expected overnight and only about 5cm throughout the day on Monday. Winds are still expected to be strong out of the SW.  Temps will average -10C at 2800m.

Avalanche Summary

Report into the office yesterday of a skier accidental avalanche on a NE aspect at 2200m near Heros Knob.  Slab a sz 2 that was 30cm deep.  Other details were sketchy regarding length and width of the avalanche.  Lots of loose spindrift pouring out of steeper terrain as a result of the winds.

Snowpack Summary

Little change.  The few cms of new snow that has fallen is either blowing away, or building thin storm slabs along ridgelines.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.