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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 6th, 2019–Dec 7th, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Storm snow is expected to accumulate Friday night and through Saturday as a frontal system stalls over the region. This will raise the avalanche danger to HIGH.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Friday Night: Snow, 10-20 cm, alpine temperature -3 C, moderate to strong southwest wind.

Saturday: Snow, 10-15 cm, alpine temperature -4, moderate southwest wind.

Sunday: Sunny with cloudy periods, alpine temperature -10, moderate north wind.

Monday: Sunny with cloudy periods, alpine temperature -8, moderate northwest wind.

Avalanche Summary

There have only been a handful of snowpack and weather observations from this area. Natural storm slab avalanches to size 1.5 were observed in the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Expect to see an increase in storm slab and persistent slab avalanches if storm snow accumulates as forecasted.

Snowpack Summary

20-35 cm of new snow falling over the past 36 hours has added to the 20-40 cm of storm snow from early in the week. All this new snow has covered a thick layer of faceted crystals, previously wind-affected surfaces, and/or surface hoar in sheltered areas around treeline and below.

A layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals) may be found in sheltered areas around treeline down 40-70 cm. 

A variety of crusts from late October are buried deeper in the snowpack.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.