A crust/surface hoar layer from mid-December remains the primary concern and requires careful terrain selection. New snow may conceal wind slabs in exposed terrain.
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
Saturday: mostly cloudy with flurries. Treeline temperatures around -12C and winds mostly light from the northwest. Sunday: Dry during the day with snow starting late in the afternoon. Treeline temperatures around -15C, winds light and variable. Monday: 10-20 cm new snow expected by the end of the day Monday. Freezing levels are expected to remain below valley bottom, with treeline temperatures around -10C. Winds anticipated to rise to around 40 km/h.
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanches have been reported up to size 2 where the recent storm snow has been transported into a wind slab. Some of these avalanches have released on or stepped down to the mid-December persistent weak layer of surface hoar and crust.
Snowpack Summary
Uneven distribution of new snow amounts and temperatures within this region with the storm that ended on Friday have likely further enhanced snowpack variability in this region. 20-25 cm new snow fell in the north, 10-15 cm in the south. Pockets of warm air in the north have likely made the snow dense in some places, while predominately westerly winds have set up fresh wind slabs in exposed lee areas. The persistent mid-December crust/surface hoar layer appears prominent in the south of the region and is still reported to fail easily during snowpack tests. It is most prominent at within a few hundred metres of treeline elecation. On average it can be found around 60 cm below the surface, although it has variably been reported anywhere from 30-90 cm below the surface. In the north of the region, this layer is present, although reported to be harder to trigger. Further down, a hard rain crust with facets from early November is buried more than a metre down and is currently unreactive. However, triggering from shallow rocky and unsupported terrain remains a concern.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.