Avalanche forecast

Waterton Lakes

Mar 28 – 31, 2016Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 11 years ago

Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A widespread natural avalanche cycle is expected on Tuesday. Later in the forecast period, natural activity will taper off on cooler (high and shady) slopes, but conditions may be ripe for human triggering on many slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Natural Loose Dry avalanches are likely in steep terrain on Tuesday, while human triggered sluffing in more sheltered terrain will remain likely throughout the forecast period.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–3
    These will be widespread, but most prevalent on S and W aspect lee slopes at Alpine and Treeline elevations. Sensitivity will increase with slope angle, and especially if temperatures approach 0 degrees, and/or / during strong sun.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2
    On Wednesday and Thursday, warming temperatures, and some sun, will persuade the mountains to shed their new load of snow. Natural Loose Wet avalanches will be likely out of steep terrain, and may run far/fast on a crust.

Weather Forecast

A strong upslope moisture feed is causing heavy snowfall, easing Tuesday morning, then clearing.  Strong NE winds develop at treeline and alpine elevations tonight .  Around midday Tuesday, these ease to Moderate, then Light. Freezing Levels remain near valley floor until Wednesday, when above freezing temps at Treeline keep hazard elevated.

Snowpack Summary

40-55cm of new snow arrived today (Sunday), and will continue to fall through midday Tuesday.  The rapid rate of loading, and strong NE winds forecast overnight will consolidate this snow into a widespread Storm Slab problem.

Avalanche Summary

Heavy snowfall and poor visibility prevented observations of any avalanche terrain today. New snow was stubborn to sluffing on steep road cuts; however small Storm Slabs were observed peeling off many steep surfaces at valley bottom, such as roofs.  A nearby operation reported very touchy conditions, including large (Size 2) Loose Dry avalanches.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Regions covered