Watch for precip, 10cm at higher elevations, but rain at lower elevations, especially Sat. Remember, even small amounts of solar heating or rain can weaken snow quickly to cause an increase in the avalanche hazard beyond the posted danger ratings.
Weather Forecast
Scattered flurries on Thursday but freezing level still up to 2000m. Accumulation might but up to 5cm. Friday the sun might pop out for periods with freezing levels climbing to 2300m. Saturday another system will move over the area with snowfall of up to 10cm. Freezing level will still be around 2400m however.
Snowpack Summary
No snowfall over the last few days and warm temps with cold nights has created a new crust to ridgetop on all solar aspects and high up on N aspects as well. The deeply buried February Facets and early season Basal Facets remain weak and will likely wake up with significant and sustained heating.
Avalanche Summary
A few isolated loose moist avalanches on all aspects and elevations with daytime heating.
Confidence
Due to the number of field observations
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.