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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2018–Jan 6th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Uncertainty exists with forecast amounts of snow: Adjust your terrain use to match the storm snow totals in your area.

Confidence

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

There's significant uncertainty in the forecast precipitation amounts... but the likely scenario is a return to a more typical active weather pattern, with steady snow throughout the forecast period. SATURDAY: Snow. 10cm accumulation / moderate south wind / Alpine temperature -5 SUNDAY: Snow. 10-15 cm accumulation / moderate south west wind / Alpine temperature -3 MONDAY: Snow. 10-15 cm accumulation / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -2

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has been reported as thin storm slab avalanches to size 1 along with isolated wind slab avalanches on east aspects in the alpine and at tree line.

Snowpack Summary

In the south of the region, recent warming and light rain (or freezing rain in some locations) has settled the 5-10cm of new snow and begun to build a thin storm slab. Above tree line the new snow has been redistributed by primarily southerly winds. There are some lingering wind slabs, found on a variety of old surfaces including a thick melt-freeze crust that formed in mid-December. In the north of the region there has been 20-30cm of storm snow since New Year's eve, with moderate to strong southerly winds. Warming temperatures and forecast snow are expected to form touchy storm slabs at all elevations. Danger ratings in the north of the region are likely one step higher than listed on the main page. Beneath the mid-December crust the snowpack is reported to be generally strong with the possible exception of areas around Stewart and northern parts of the region where the late-October, basal crust can be found near the base of the snowpack. Weak sugary faceted snow may exist around this deeply buried crust and could be triggered from shallow snowpack areas.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.