Be mindful of the strength of the incoming solar radiation. Temperature increases can occur very rapidly when the sun comes out with a corresponding increase in avalanche danger. Finish your trips early under these conditions.
Weather Forecast
Temperatures will remain warm overnight with strong Westerly winds at upper elevations. Freezing levels will hover between 2000m - 2200m. Precipitation amounts will be limited to 3mm with the Continental Divide receiving the largest share. More snow if forecast for friday evening and into Saturday at which time temperatures will drop dramatically.
Snowpack Summary
A spring temperature crust up to 15cm thick can be found near the top of the snowpack. Warm temps will prevent a good overnight freeze of the crust which has been found as high as 2600m. Strong Westerly winds will continue to develop slab conditions on Easterly facing slopes particularly if we receive new snow on Friday and Saturday.
Avalanche Summary
With the lack of a good overnight freeze tonight increased wet slides from treeline and below can be expected on Friday. New snow on Friday and Saturday will increase trigger sensitivity of slab avalanche from treeline and above. The extreme Westerly winds and warm temperatures will increase cornice failure with the potential of trigger deep slabs.
Confidence
Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.