Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Jan 16 – 17, 2013Parks Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Warm temperatures with possibility of rain on Thursday means that we don't anticipate any decrease in avalanche danger in the short term.  Conservative terrain choices are advised.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Significant new windslab formation and loading observed today with the arrival of intense NW winds at upper elevations. Once triggered, these events are stepping down to ground.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Wind transported snow is triggering point releases, most commonly out of steep and rocky terrain.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3
    Surface instabilities such as loose snow and new windslabs are stepping down to ground, which means a small  avalanche has the ability to become  large very quickly.

Weather Forecast

Warming trend continues, accompanied by intense NW winds at ridgetop for next 48 hours.  Rain is forecast for Thursday (5mm).  Freezing levels rising to 1400m.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack remains thin and facetted at lower elevations, but is supportive above treeline. Last week's storm snow has buried a surface hoar layer (Jan6) down approx 30cm.  Windslabs forming on Southerly alpine aspects and significant snow transport by intense winds.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 2 natural soft and hard slab avalanches observed in the alpine and several size 3.  Many of these slides are stepping to ground and running to valley bottom.  Widespread natural loose dry and spindrift avalanches originating from steep rocky terrain at all elevations.  These observations were made in the Columbia Icefield Area.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

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