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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2019–Jan 25th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Travel & Terrain Advice

Prepare for inversions as you rise in elevation for the foreseeable future. Recent new surface snow will become less stable as freezing levels rise and changes in conditions with elevation become more apparent. Small loose wet avalanches combined with terrain traps may have large consequences. Avoid weakening cornices.

Avalanche Summary

No new observations or reports since Monday.

Snowpack Summary

10-30 cm of snow on Tuesday fell on weak feathery surface hoar crystals on most aspects at all elevations. This potential weak layer of crystals was found on top of 30-60 cm of dry cold old storm snow which was bonding well to an old melt freeze crust which is showing obvious signs of deterioration. The snow pack below this crust is well settled and dense.

Snowpack Details

Surface: 10-30 cm low density new snow with a temperature interface down 5-10 cm. Upper: Buried surface hoar to 6 mm down anywhere from 10-50 cm atop loose dry storm snow. Mid: Deteriorating old melt freeze crust down 50-90 cm. Lower: Well settled.

Past Weather

Clear calm conditions produced surface hoar development on most aspects at all elevations recently. Tuesday saw the day start with freezing fog at lower elevations turn to moderate snowfall to elevations all the way down to 700 m with accumulations of 15-30 cm. Freezing levels did not spike as previous models suggested, preserving cold dry storm snow at all elevations above 1000 m.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: No accumulation, freezing levels around 1000 m. Winds moderate to light from the NW. THURSDAY: No accumulation with freezing levels around 900 m. Winds light to moderate from the W. FRIDAY: Trace amounts of precipitation with freezing levels to 2800 m! Winds moderate from the NW.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.