Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will rise to high today as the last of a series of storms pushes into northern NM today going through the evening. Heavy snow and wind with up to 2 feet of snow are forecasted over the next 24 hours.  This will bring storm totals over the last week close to 5 feet and over 4" of SWE.  The added weight will stress and overwhelm buried weak layers creating large and destructive avalanches.  Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely today.   Traveling in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Persistent weak layers that are buried 2 to 4 feet down will continue to be stressed by this last significant storm that will more than likely tip the scales on many slopes as the storm intensifies this afternoon.  These avalanches will be large and destructive propagating widely across slopes and able to run long distances well into the flats.    Human triggered and natural persistent slab avalanches are likely. Traveling on or beneath terrain steeper than 30 degrees is not recommended.  

    Well preserved fragile faceted weak layers are widespread in our snowpack.  These layers formed in January and February during periods of high pressure and are now buried beneath 2 to 4-foot slabs that have formed over the last week. An additional 2 feet of snow is forecasted today.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall and wind today will continue to add to snow over the last week.  Transportable wind speeds over the last 24 hours will continue through the first portions of this incoming storm.  Expect to find sensitive reactive slabs as snow stacks up with today's storm.  Intense periods of heavy snow are expected by mid-day. In wind-sheltered areas expect to see long-running loose snow avalanches as steep slopes relieve themselves later in the day as snowfall rates increase.    

Avalanche Discussion

It hasn't been a bad start to March with snow almost every day for the last week.  Snow totals so far are close to 3 feet and about 3" of SWE.  W/SW winds overnight were in the 20's gusting in the 40's at ridgelines.  Today and tonight's storm is expected to be the biggest of the bunch with up to 2 feet of snow forecasted and an additional 1.5" of water. Snow will start falling around 5 AM and continue well into the night with heavy snowfall expected mid-day. Winds will be in the 20 to 30 mph range today before dropping off tonight.  

Well preserved weak layers continue to remain deeper down in the snowpack buried beneath 2 to 4-foot slabs that have built up over the last week's storms. These faceted weak layers formed over high-pressure periods in January and February and are typically sandwiched between crusts or old decomposing slabs.  These faceted layers are found beneath an obvious dust layer that formed on 2/22 from a strong wind event. On many slopes, this dust layer was the old existing surface prior to the snow that has fallen over the last week.  These weak layers are widespread and can be found at all elevations with northerly through east aspects being the bulls-eye.  Prior to this storm, we had very warm temperatures and sunny days that created melt-freeze crusts of varying thickness and strengths on lower elevation terrain and solar aspects.  Thicker stronger crusts will be better equipped to handle more weight.  

 

Visibility was limited but we haven't seen much natural avalanche activity aside from some loose snow sluffs in steep terrain and a large natural avalanche on the north face of Vallecito a couple of days ago that was what appeared to be a meter deep.  Many slopes are primed and ready to go with today's significant storm pushing us over the tipping point.  The storm looks to intensify later today into the evening which is when I'd expect to see peak instability.  

 

Regions covered