Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions remain dangerous and you could trigger a large and destructive avalanche in east-facing terrain above 3000 ft. Signs of dangerous avalanche conditions will be blowing snow and large snow drifts deeper than your boot tops. Take time to visually assess terrain and limit your exposure to large, pillowy snow surfaces. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    What and where it is: Large, destructive slabs of wind-drifted snow remain possible for you to trigger across steep terrain in eastern ravines above 3000 ft. Large drifts observed yesterday were several feet thick with strong-over-weak structure. If snow continues to load, do not rule out the possibility of natural avalanches. 

    How can you recognize it:  Plumes of blowing snow from strong westerly winds will be the easiest sign of dangerous conditions today, as will finding avalanche debris and crownlines. As you move into terrain, look for large, pillowy, smooth drifts as areas to assess. While you may still find shooting cracks, the absence of them does not guarantee stability. If you are traveling on hollow, stiff snow, dig down to assess if you find a strong-over-weak structure. Hand shears, pole probes, and column tests will be valuable to assess the size and sensitivity of new slabs. 

    How can you manage it: Travel in south, east, and north-facing avalanche terrain above 3000 feet in elevation requires thoughtful evaluation today. Start with a visual assessment, and as you move through terrain, assess the interface of new slabs with the hard, old snow surface. Manage your terrain by limiting your exposure to steep, connected snow-covered slopes. Other parties may increase your exposure as they could trigger an avalanche above you.

Avalanche Discussion

Today, if you choose to enter avalanche terrain, take time to assess the terrain. With limited data, there is less certainty around today’s forecast, which means that more information is needed before we commit to stepping out into bigger terrain. The combination of over 18 inches of snow, followed by shifting and increasing winds, coupled with cold temperatures, all within a short amount of time are a lot of red flags that should give you some pause before you choose to enter avalanche terrain. 

There is limited data as the changes have been continual. We do know that these recently formed slabs were reactive yesterday, snow was still loading, the surface slabs were large, and had strong-over-weak structure. Winds decreased in the afternoon, and while they gradually increased overnight, it was not enough to where you should expect to find stability and bridged slabs. 

Take time to assess terrain, gather information, and talk with your partners about how much hazard you are willing to expose yourselves to. If this is sounding complex, that is because it is, and consider seeking out low-angle terrain that is sheltered in the trees for simpler recreating. 

The most dangerous conditions will be found in east-facing terrain, but still take time to assess soft snow in west-facing terrain and in low elevations. The storm snow has likely settled, though wind effect may have hardened the surface snow in some sheltered areas that have not been scoured. This could be more isolated, but it should not be out of your mind if you travel in the western half of the compass. 

A last thought I will leave you all with: how much remaining snow is available for transport? Over 18 inches of low-density snow was recorded throughout this past storm. While some of it has already been blown into east-facing ravines, the volume of snow warrants consideration if there is more available as winds continue to increase. Simply put, if you are observing blowing snow, do not rule out the potential for natural avalanches. 

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts. 

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