Avalanche forecast

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Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You may be able to trigger a large avalanche where the wind formed large drifts or stiffened the snow surface, especially in steep rocky terrain. Smaller, loose snow avalanches are possible if the surface snow becomes wet or mushy. Triggering avalanches is unlikely where the snow surface is powdery (very soft and dry).

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    What and where is it?  You may be able to trigger 1-3 foot thick slabs in wind-loaded terrain near and above about 8500'. Some slabs overlie crusts and/or thin layers of weak, faceted snow and could break wider than expected. Triggering these large avalanches is most likely in "prime time" avalanche terrain: slopes approaching or exceeding about 40 degrees in steepness. 

    How can we recognize and manage this problem? The wind slabs are fairly easy to spot and avoid. Watch for smooth pillows below ridgelines and cornices as well as on the sides of cross-loaded gullies. Slabs also formed on the aprons of some large chutes and couloirs. Dunes and ripples on the surface are clues the wind has been at work transporting snow.

    Falling cornices can be great triggers for the wind slabs below them. Hard wind slabs sound hollow, like a drum, and behave unpredictably; they can break above you and wider than expected. You may or may not experience snowpack cracking or collapsing—clear signs of unstable conditions—before triggering a wind slab avalanche. 

     

     

     

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    What and where is it? Today's expected cloud cover should keep wet avalanche activity at bay. However, any extended periods of unobscured sunshine and light wind will bring these slides into play. The chance of relatively small, natural and human-triggered wet loose avalanches will increase on slopes that check most or all of the following boxes:

    • Receiving direct, unobstructed sunshine.
    • Sheltered from the wind.
    • Very steep (approaching or over about 40 degrees).
    • Near exposed rocks.

    How can we recognize and manage this problem? The threat of wet loose avalanches generally follows the sun around the compass: SE-S aspects in the morning, S-SW facing slopes mear mid-day, and SW-W aspects in the afternoon. Watch for rollerballs and pinwheels, signs the surface snow is becoming moist and wet loose avalanches may follow. These slides often initiate near the base of trees and rocks, gathering snow and growing in size as they move downhill. While generally small, these slides could knock you over or push you where you don't want to go.

    (1/11/2026) Rollerballs and small, natural wet loose avalanches in the northern Boulder Mtns, Pole Ck drainage. SW aspects in alpine terrain. 

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Last week, skiers triggered slab avalanches in steep, wind-affected terrain in the northern and southern Sawtooth Mtns. In recent days, we and other observers saw several large avalanches that released at the end of, or following, the early January storms (see photos below). Some common characteristics of these slides:

  • They occurred in wind-loaded terrain in the wetter, snowier parts of the forecast area (to the south of this zone).
  • They appeared to be triggered by cornices or smaller avalanches coming from above, or were human-triggered. 
  • They released on SE-E-NE aspects between about 8500-9800'. 

Tragically, three people were killed in avalanches in recent days in neighboring states. A snowmobiler was killed SE of Afton, Wyoming on Sunday (watch video report here). Last Friday, a Washington avalanche caught four skiers and killed two.

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