Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

A 1.5-2.5 foot thick slab avalanche is possible to trigger on weak snow near the ground. These slides are most likely at upper-elevations and on shaded mid-elevation slopes (E-N-W). You likely won't see any warning signs before triggering a slide, which could run on a slope that has many past tracks on it. Triggering an avalanche is more likely in areas where the snow surface has been affected by the wind.

DIPPING YOUR TOES IN(?)

We've all approached the edge of a body of water, wondering what the temperatures are like before jumping in. Pleasant, welcoming, warm? Cold, frigid, breath-takingly shaking? The Collins Dictionary defines the idiom 'to dip your toes in'  as to "start doing something slowly and carefully because you are not sure whether it will be successful." With this insight, the snowpack is, in more than one way, a body of water. How so? Read on.

With a prolonged three-week drought, stability has gradually improved and the likelihood of triggering avalanches has decreased. Yet, we're still at moderate danger, because triggering a consequential avalanche is still possible. This is one of the trickiest times to make decisions in the mountains. We have a stubborn strong slab over weak snow persistent slab structure in some areas, and on almost identical aspects and elevations just miles away: a fully faceted snowpack top to bottom (see video). Without a stronger slab overlying the weak facets at the base of our snowpack, the persistent slab problem no longer is alive, and entering avalanche terrain becomes an increasingly more reasonable thought. However, it is still near impossible to say just exactly which slopes are freed of this dragon. The only way to truly know if the persistent slab problem lives where you are traveling is to look directly into the snowpack you are on. Using the back of your pole to probe for weak snow as you travel, digging quick hand pits in the skin track, as well as using proper stability tests are the only ways to know if you're stepping into the dragon's den or not. 

Starting to dip our toes into considering entering avalanche terrain is becoming increasingly reasonable. I say dip our toes though, because if this is something you're considering, it needs to be done slowly and carefully because we are not sure whether it will be successful. Now is not the time to throw caution to the wind. Why? Because the flip side of "successful" is to be caught in a large, destructive avalanche. Entering avalanche terrain at all is still very much either a no-go from the car, or a deeply investigated question for me. I'd advise the same for you. If you're choosing to enter avalanche terrain, you are choosing to play the game and accept the consequences of losing. Being certain of your ability to accurately evaluate the presence of our persistent slab strong over weak snowpack structure is crucial to even thinking about entertaining this idea. If you are unsure, now is not the time to test your hypotheses. The season is still young.

Many factors go into our complex equation of evaluating the snowpack. In addition to basic snowpack structure, there are other considerations to factor in. If an area was recently wind-loaded, you are more likely to trigger an avalanche. This remains true even in areas where the majority of the snowpack below is faceted. While it is harder for them to bury a person, dense loose dry facet-lanches can knock you off your feet and carry you through nasty terrain obstacles like trees, rocks, and cliffs below. Consider how the consequences of a slide might be multiplied above these, or other terrain traps like gullies.

Patience is key — now's not the time to dive head-first into what might be shallow water.