Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Snowfall on Thursday exacerbates the already dangerous conditions.  Observers reported large, remotely triggered avalanches on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Dangerous natural avalanches could release, and human triggered slides are likely, particularly on the north half of the compass near and above treeline.  Below treeline terrain has been quiet recently, but concerns steadily increase for avalanche activity to expand into lower elevations.  You can find safe travel options on slopes less than 30 degrees without steeper terrain above.  Lower elevation, wind-sheltered southerly slopes are less likely to produce a dangerous slide.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A mix of depth hoar, facets, and faceted crusts buried 2 to 3 feet deep are reactive to human and remote triggers. Northerly and easterly facing terrain near and above treeline has been most active due to thicker slabs over well-developed weak layers. The lower half of the snowpack is highly variable, shaped by early-season droughts, record-warm temperatures, rain, and past extreme wind events. As a result, expect inconsistent feedback as you move across aspects, elevations, or even different parts of the same slope. Cracking and collapsing are obvious signs of instability, although your first clear signal could be a dangerous avalanche. The most reliable way to manage this problem is by choosing slopes less than 30 degrees. Wind-eroded terrain, lower elevation southerly slopes, and elevations below ~10,000' offer less risky options, where slabs are less common and weak layers are often capped by stronger crusts. 

    A large, remotely triggered avalanche broke on weak layers near the ground on Monday above West Brush Creek.  (1/6/2026) Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Stormy weather on Thursday will build a new round of soft slabs.  Triggered avalanches may become possible as snow stacks up, and natural avalanches could release on wind-drifted slopes or during periods of heavy snowfall.  The most-likely place to trigger an avalanche in the storm snow will be on wind-drifted features and slopes facing west - north - east due to a layer of surface hoar that formed Wednesday night.  Use extra caution on the north half of the compass, as a triggered avalanche in the storm snow could release a much larger avalanche deeper in the snowpack.  Cracking is a clear sign of a problem in the storm snow.  You can use quick hand pits to check the bonding between the new snow and the old surface.

    A Storm Slab avalanche from last week in sheltered terrain at lower elevations.

    Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

A steady stream of storms since Christmas has produced multiple natural avalanche cycles and human-triggered avalanches (West Brush Creek, Mount Axtell).  Today's storm is likely to produce similar results.  The evidence clearly indicates that dangerous conditions exist on the north half of the compass above about 10,500 feet and wind-drifted features on some sunnier aspects.  In this terrain, the potential avalanche size grows larger with each storm.  Expect that triggered avalanches will be large enough to bury, injure, and kill you.

Uncertainty persists for some terrain.  Northerly slopes, below roughly 10,500 feet, have been relatively quiet through the past few storms due to the Christmas rain crust capping basal weak layers.  However, Zach's recent trip out West Brush Creek produced cracking and collapsing, and my trip near Pittsburg produced moderate propagating test results beneath a 2-foot-thick slab.  It is difficult to know when and where the first large avalanche may occur below treeline, but as loading continues, my suspicion increases.  Areas in the Northwest Mountain will receive more snow today, making it more likely for the problem to rear its head.  The crust thickness varies with elevation and location in the range, so heed any warnings the snowpack gives you.

Even though higher elevation sunny terrain is not highlighted on the Persistent Slab problem rose, unusual weather events earlier this season and incremental loading over the past two weeks may create surprise avalanches outside of the 'most likely' places.  Carefully assess the snowpack on steep terrain to prevent being surprised.  Now that the snowpack is gaining depth and riding nicely on many aspects, there are lots of low-angle terrain options available to avoid avalanche hazards. 

Upcoming Events:  

Jan 10 Trailhead Day: Snodgrass 10 am-2 pm

Jan 13 Fireside Chat:  Kim Grant from Silverton Mountain at Zuni West Brewing 5-7 pm

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