East Slopes South

Significant rainfall will extend ridgetops and make for a heads-up day on snow-covered slopes above 5500 ft. Expect wet avalanches and cornices to shed as rain continues to fall. Any triggered avalanche would be a nasty ride with all the early-season hazards that currently lurk. 

This has a wet storm for the mountains of the East South. So far, weather stations have picked up over 2 inches of water and 4-6 inches of dry snow on Monday night. Unfortunately, any dry snow that fell at upper elevations will be rained on Tuesday night and Wednesday, as a second atmospheric river takes landfall. This one looks both warmer and wetter, which could have a devastating impact on our lean, early-season snowpack. 

If you decide to brave the storm and head out for a soggy day in the mountains on Wednesday, keep a couple of things in mind:

1) Wet avalanches: We suspect there will likely be a round of small natural avalanches that entrain the recent snow accumulations at middle and upper elevations. These will likely be most sensitive during Monday night and Tuesday morning as rain begins to fall. As the rain persists, expect any combo of wet loose, wet slab, and cornice shed on slopes with continuous snow. Expect these wet snow instabilities to be most prevalent on slopes above 6000 ft that hold a more connected snowpack. 

2). Early season hazards: Early-season conditions persist, even at higher elevations. Watch for shallowly buried rocks, trees, and creeks. Recognize that even small slides can have big consequences when the snowpack is so thin. In general, access is unusually difficult this December. You'll find no snow at many trailheads and sno-parks. 

On December 7th, I set out for a driving tour of the East South zone. In general, I found very little to no snow below 5000 ft. Between 5 and 6000 ft, the snowpack is lean and will likely wash away with all the rainfall. Above 6000 ft, a much more consistent and connected snowpack exists. In typical Cascade fashion, I found a thicker, more desirable snowpack closer to the Cascade Crest than areas further east. We'll have to see what's left of this already struggling snowpack once these warm storms are wrapped up.

With the warm start to the 25-26 winter season, we have less snowpack information than usual to start daily forecast operations. For zones and elevation bands with less snow than needed for avalanche hazard, we will issue a forecast with No Rating. Anticipated avalanche and weather conditions will still be updated daily. NWAC will issue an avalanche danger rating for a zone when enough snow to produce avalanches has accumulated at middle and upper elevations.

The season is young, the snowpack is shallow,  and observations are limited. You can help us out by submitting a public observation here.