Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

High winds have dominated the weather during the bulk of the week with the general effect of stipping rather than loading avalanche starting zones. Observations are limited, so careful snowpack evaluation is recommended before committing to avalanche-prone slopes, especially in extreme terrain. Though seemingly dormant, the conditions for the persistent slab problems are still present on mid and high-elevation north and northeast slopes and should be assessed with caution. This forecast is sponsored by Coconino County Sheriff's Search and Rescue.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Some starting zones on northerly and northeasterly aspects still have a weak layer near the base of the snowpack.  Recent observations indicate that this weak layer, found near ground level, is diminishing. However, the distribution of this problem may vary significantly, even in adjacent locations.  While triggering a slide of this type will be unlikely, the consequences will be severe. The only way to determine the presence of this problem is to examine the snowpack. 

    The last known avalanches resulting from a persistent weak layer occurred during the MLK Storm Cycle in mid-January. They were natural avalanches of size ~D2. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Elevations near 9,300' in Hart Prairie did not drop below freezing last night. 

    Keep a sharp eye out for possible wet loose avalanches on lower elevation slopes on west, south, and east aspects. Generally, these releases will be minor (<D1.5). However, these could threaten travelers in specific areas (i.e., extreme terrain, terrain traps, etc.). Backcountry travelers should assess slopes carefully, especially later in the day, and keep an eye on lower-elevation sunny slopes looking for signs of warming, such as roller balls. 

Avalanche Discussion

Snow near and above treeline is very firm, making travel at higher elevations strenuous. Lower elevations also have wind and temperature-affected snow, making for challenging touring. Crampons will be helpful near/above treeline. Some backcountry travelers report a good corn snow harvest on southerly slopes with the right timing. 

The last known avalanche occurred between January 23-27 and was a relatively small wind slab. The last known large avalanches occurred in mid-January during the MLK Storm Cycle.  

Enjoy the backcountry but have a plan when heading out, and stay adaptable when traveling through the mountains. 

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