Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Generally stable avalanche conditions exist, and large avalanches are unlikely. Look for thin drifts in exposed middle and upper elevation terrain. While small and isolated, recent drifts and slabs may be easy to trigger. Small, loose snow avalanches are possible on very steep slopes.

Avalanche Discussion

It's been mostly dry since the first week of January aside from small storms beginning on January 20th and January 30th. Check out our Storm Totals page to see a spreadsheet detailing each storm event this season. Despite the prolonged dry spell, the snowpack here is around 110% of normal. Thankfully, the strong start to the winter was enough to endure the past 4 weeks of mostly dry weather. I pulled data from the SNOTEL weather station on Vienna Mine. Check out this plot to see how we compare to the 30-year average. 

Triggering a large avalanche is unlikely, but here are a couple of small problems to consider, especially if you're considering complex, high consequence terrain: 

Wind Slabs: Yesterday, a skier intentionally triggered a small wind slab in the Sawtooths. The slab was 4-8" thick and 30' wide. The slab failed on a layer of weak, faceted snow that sat above a crust. Similar small slabs were triggered on Tuesday in Lake Ck north of Ketchum, and on Monday near Galena Peak.

You're most likely to encounter this problem where thin slabs rest on faceted snow + crusts or surface hoar from the January drought. Keep your eyes peeled for textured, wind-sculpted snow surfaces, especially near exposed ridgelines. Although small, they may be large enough to knock you off your feet. Consider the consequences of triggering a small slide if you are traveling in serious terrain. 

Deep Persistent Slabs: Weak, faceted snow exists near the base of the snowpack on most shady, middle and upper elevation slopes. Triggering an avalanche on this layer is unlikely but not impossible. You're most likely to find trouble on slopes with the following characteristics:

  • Steep:  slopes steeper than about 35 degrees.
  • Rocky: slopes with variable snow cover due to the roughness of the terrain.
  • Wind-affected: slopes where strong winds produced variable snow cover.

Cornices: It can be difficult to tell if you are traveling along a snow-covered ridgeline or out on an overhanging cornice. Cornices are unpredictable, and the safe play is to avoid riding or skiing on them.

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