Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger is low, but not zero. Most slopes are unreactive after the long dry spell, yet isolated slabs of drifted snow over weak facets could still produce a surprise—especially in steep, high-consequence terrain.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    An extreme wind event last week formed a few thin, hard slabs scattered across all elevations, in concave catchments and behind abrupt transitions in the terrain. Where these drifts formed over facets on colder aspects, you might still be able to trigger one, and they're stiff enough to knock you off your feet.  Look for firm, rounded snow surfaces to identify potential features of concern. 

    Snowfall and wind drifting in early December formed slabs up to a few feet thick over facets near the ground.  These weak layers are most widespread on the northern half of the compass, and slabs are most common at mid and upper elevations. Mild weather through the middle of December has helped the snowpack adjust to its current load, or in some cases, the slabs have decayed away. The last documented avalanche on these old, weak layers was accidentally triggered on 12/14.

    An example of a thin, hard slab over sugary facets. The resulting avalanche would be small in size, but the hard snow surface could easily pull you off your feet or push you into a tree. 

Avalanche Discussion

Our snowpack has largely flatlined since the big storm on December 6th, and avalanche activity has been rare over the past week due to the ongoing drought. An extreme wind event last Wednesday scoured what little snow was available for transport off much of the terrain and redeposited it into thin, hard slabs on isolated features. Where these slabs formed over weak snow surfaces on colder aspects, they remain a concern for human triggering. They're mostly harmless except if you get taken for a ride in extreme terrain or above trees.

The larger, thicker slabs (1 to 3 feet thick) that formed in early December have now had two weeks of quiet weather to adjust or decay, and most slopes are expected to be unreactive. That said, a few bad apples remain with just the right ingredients for a surprise. An observation from Hunter Hill yesterday highlights this potential: several slopes produced collapses and shooting cracks that propagated wider than expected, despite generally decaying slab conditions.  With surface crusts expected to thaw and lose strength on the sunny side later today and again tomorrow, we put high southeast aspects back on the persistent slab rose, given that some of those slopes also have slab-over-facet structures.  

It may not be primo powder conditions out there, but it's rare to have greenlight conditions in mid-December.  Take advantage of the relatively safe conditions and unusually mild weather to explore new terrain or get up high for nice views. You might be able to sniff out some wind-protected recycled powder or solstice corn.  Continue practicing safe travel protocols and be careful in higher-consequence terrain.  

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