Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Another storm will bring more wind, snow, and rising avalanche danger. Stick to sheltered, lower angled terrain with minimal exposure to big slopes overhead. Scale back to the simplest, most protected terrain if you observe natural avalanches or numerous human-triggered avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The new snow is stacking up with another 10-18 inches today on top of what we picked up Thursday and Friday. With more snow and strong winds in the forecast, expect to find any combination of avalanche problems, including wind slab, loose dry, and storm slabs in more sheltered terrain. All this snow sits over a crust that produced small human-triggered avalanches on Friday and poor snowpack test results on Saturday. 

    Use the crust beneath the new snow as a reference layer to track changes in new snow and wind slab depth as you gain elevation or change aspects. Test slopes and other informal tests can help assess the bond of the new snow to this crust. If you’re not getting down to the crust, you’re not testing the interface above it. Shooting cracks and recent avalanches are clear signs you’re probably going to trigger an avalanche in steep terrain.

    (1/19/2023)

    Wind loaded gully walls are ideal places to see both natural and human-triggered avalanches.

    Photo: Robert Hahn

Avalanche Discussion

Snowfall rates and totals could swing well above or below the forecast, depending on your location within the zone and which weather forecast model verifies. You might find better-than-expected stability—or widespread natural avalanches—possibly both in the same day. Saturday should be a legit mountain day, even if High danger doesn’t materialize. Add a thin snowpack, barely buried obstacles, and peak powder angst, and the margin for error is small.

Observations have started to trickle in over the last few days. Avalanche control work ahead of opening day at Mt. Baker Ski Area produced numerous small soft slab avalanches. An observer on Heliotrope Ridge found wind slabs more stubborn than the day prior. The most notable finding was a weak bond at the crust–new snow interface buried on December 18. This crust is suspected to extend into upper-elevation terrain, but its full extent remains unknown. 

The Mount Baker Highway will open on Sunday. Mountain access from Hwy 20 is still limited due to closures on both the Cascade River and Baker Lake roads. Shallow snow cover and recent washouts and landslides continue to restrict travel and limit on-the-ground observations across the forecast zone.

The weather over the past few weeks has been extraordinary, with torrential rains, extreme winds, flooding, and landslides. Many communities are dealing with damage to homes, infrastructure, and businesses, stretching resources thin. These events have limited access to the mountains for all of us. State and local resources are working diligently to reduce the worst of these impacts. We can help by being respectful of local communities, obeying road closures, and heeding ski area uphill travel policies.

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