The danger of wet snow avalanches is increasing with continued warming.
The easy way to stay out of trouble is to avoid being on or below steep slopes during the heat of the day.
Red flags are overly wet and sloppy snow and punching deep into unconsolidated wet snow.
Continued warm weather is a big red flag for potential cornice falls. This remains the most likely type of avalanche we'll see today. The danger trend is increasing. This is a simple problem to manage though:
Photo below: example of a cornice that should be avoided during the heat of the day.
Continued warming is also increasing the danger of wet avalanches. Last night was the fifth night in a row with temperatures above freezing. This is a red flag. You will probably find that the snow is becoming unsupportable in the low and mid elevations to the point where you are punching through with your boots and perhaps even with your skis or machines. The wet snow avalanche problem is also simple to manage:
Photo below: example of a pile of debris from a wet loose avalanche
One more thing to add about the warming. At some point we may see the older deeply buried weak layers come to life again as water percolates through the snowpack and lubricates those old layers. The mountains, in essence, will start to shed and we could see wet slab avalanches breaking deep into the snowpack. This is a pretty difficult thing to pin down on if or when it will happen but numerous nights with above freezing temperatures is an indicator. This issue is also easy to manage: Stay off of and out from below steep slopes during the heat of the day.
Sunday will be the last day of daily avalanche forecasts for this winter. Forecasts will be updated intermittently as needed through the end of the month depending on storms.
There's been some natural wet loose avalanche activity over the last few days. Below is a photo which shows an example of the typical activity we see in the springtime. This was in Olsen Canyon above Joe's Valley. These slides were probably triggered by small pieces of cornices falling off.
PHOTO: Beau Lund
Current Conditions: Very warm temperatures continue. We've had 5 day of very warm daytime temperatures and it's been above freezing overnight all week. Last night, lows stayed in the 40s. The snowpack has taken a big hit loosing about a foot of depth or more over the week. Riding conditions remain decent above around 9000' where it's still supportable. Below that, the snowpack has fallen apart and you'll find yourself wallowing deep in slushy unsupportable snow.
Mountain Weather: It'll be another day of warm temperatures although we'll see some high clouds that will offset things a bit. Wind from the southwest will increase and could get fairly strong by late day. A minor weather disturbance moves through tonight and Sunday that'll bring slightly cooler temperatures and scattered clouds. We'll see continued warm temperatures next week, just not quite as warm as this past week.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
