Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Our main concern is that a person can trigger an avalanche around a foot deep failing on weak snow that formed during this cold spell, and was buried by recent winds. This will be most likely in steep, upper elevation terrain below ridgelines, convex rolls, and in steep gullies. We are also still closely tracking the ongoing glide avalanche cycle, which is showing signs of slowing down but remains a concern for now. 

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: The most recent reported avalanches were on the west side of Seattle Creek last weekend. These were likely wind slabs failing on weak, faceted snow. 

    We're in a holding pattern weather- and avalanche-wise for now. Our main concern is the layer of weak, faceted snow that has developed near the surface during the past few weeks of cold and dry weather. The most likely place to trigger an avalanche like this will be in steep, upper-elevation terrain where there is a layer of wind-drifted snow capping that weak snow. This could make an avalanche around a foot deep, and it is the kind of setup which could allow you to travel well out onto a slope before you trigger an avalanche. The most suspect terrain for this problem will be at higher elevations just below ridgelines, convex rollovers, or steep gullies.

    There is still a very small chance you may be able to trigger an avalanche failing on one of the three layers of surface hoar buried deeper in the snowpack. However, after over three weeks without any documented avalanche activity on those layers, we are thinking that is becoming very unlikley.

     

    (12/17/2025)

    Surfaces in Summit Lake are severely wind-affected. In many upper elevation start  zones, stiff old wind slabs are sitting on top of weak, faceted snow. Photo from Tenderfoot Ridge.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    It is starting to look like our glide avalanche problem has begun to slow down. However, these avalanches are unpredictable and it's impossible to say whether this cycle has come to an end, or if we have just gone a few days with limited activity. Keep this uncertainty in mind, and avoid spending time under open glide cracks whenever possible. 

    (12/17/2025)

    Windblown surface in the foreground, open glide crack in the middle ground, older glide avalanche in the background. Tenderfoot Ridge.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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