Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could trigger an avalanche on steep north, east, and west slopes near and above treeline. Although the likelihood of triggering an avalanche has decreased, the consequences are high, with the avalanche likely growing wider and running further than you may expect. Avoid slopes with cohesive slabs of wind-loaded snow that rest on older, weaker snow near the ground.  Smooth and rounded pillows or cornices are indicators of wind-loaded terrain. For safer skiing options, look for areas below treeline that are less than 35 degrees and aren't wind affected. 

Expect the avalanche danger to increase Saturday night and Sunday as up to 20" of snow is expected to fall near treeline by Sunday night.

For more information on the Avalanche Danger Scale, watch this video!

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Over the past few weeks, many E, N, and W slopes have been skied across the peaks; however, this is not evidence that a persistent slab avalanche cannot be triggered. Areas with a thin snowpack (<150cm) pose the largest risk for triggering a persistent avalanche, as it is easier for a traveler's weight to collapse the depth hoar at the base of the snowpack.  Although this is a low-probability event, anticipate that these avalanches will grow wider and run further than you expect, yielding a high-consequence scenario that could bury, hurt, or kill a backcountry traveler. For example, the very large natural avalanche on the NE face of Fremont in early January had a max crown height of 2 meters and destroyed 30-40-year-old trees. Additionally, a second large natural avalanche occurred in Abineau Canyon. Steep W, N, and E aspects above 10,500' should be considered most suspect, as these slopes accumulated early season snow, which has since turned into depth hoar and been buried by the season's entire snowpack.

    The best way to manage the risk from persistent slab avalanches is to make conservative terrain choices. Persistent slabs can be potentially triggered by a skier’s/boarder’s weight, even weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways, making this problem difficult to manage. 

    (1/8/2023)

    Crown average ~100cm. Max ~220cm. Toe of Debris pile stopped at the Inner Basin Trail. Numerous 30-40 year old trees destroyed. Occurred ~January 1st or 2nd. HS-N-R3-D3-O

    Photo: Miguel Fernandez

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