Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is low today.  Watch for the chance of wet loose avalanches on steep south facing slopes absent of trees and persistent slab avalanches on north facing terrain, particularly in the shallow sides of steep rock-lined chutes and gullies. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Warming temperatures today will bring a chance of wet loose avalanches in the new snow received on Thursday.  These avalanches will be small but could knock a skier or rider off their feet.  Don't be taken by surprise with consequential terrain below.  Steep open slopes on southerly aspects will be the most prone to these wet loose avalanches.  Travel on south facing slopes earlier in the day and look for signs of instability, such as roller balls or melting surface conditions.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Basal facets buried at the bottom of the snowpack continue to persist on northern facing slopes in a few locations.  In general, these facets seem to be nearly gone, except in rocky and talus bed surfaces.  Over the last week to two weeks, they have been unreactive in stability tests, including those conducted in pits averaging just 50 cm.  Nonetheless, skiers and riders should continue to exercise caution in the starting zones of steep chutes.  The variable conditions across terrain make this problem difficult to assess, and it is possible that some slopes still harbor reactive layers near and at the bottom of the snowpack.  The only way to fully know if this persistent weak layer is still present and possibly reactivity is to dig.  Given the mostly rocky bed surface strewn across the San Francisco Peaks; this problem could still produce a small to large avalanche capable of burying a skier or rider.  

Avalanche Discussion

Warming temperatures today will increase the avalanche hazard as the day goes on.  As is often the case, conditions across the Peaks are variable.  While avalanches are unlikely it does not mean they are impossible.  Wet loose avalanches are the most likely problem backcountry travelers will encounter.  Given the small size of these avalanches the danger rating remains low.  Backcountry travelers should also be aware that the persistent slab issue, while mostly gone, could still produce small to large avalanches.  If they were to occur, they will be much more dangerous as they may release at or near the bottom of the snowpack.  These avalanches, if triggered, could result in a full burial.  The probability of this type of avalanche is very low, but north facing steep chutes and paths may still harbor this problem.  

As a note of future interest, but probably not a current issue, is that on Wednesday, a layer of facets was found beneath north facing surface crusts.  This weak layer was unreactive in stability tests, and Thursday's snow failed to load it significantly, but it could be a layer of concern if we were to receive significant precipitation in the future.

As mentioned, before the most recent storms of Thursday and Friday, a myriad of wind and sun crusts were present on small and large scales across the mountain.  Nearly every surface across the inner basin was affected.  The most recent storm delivered a layer of relatively moderate-density snow, measured at 10% density, on the mountain's west side.  At the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL, a mere .3" of SWE was recorded.  This did little to load the underlying weak layer of basal facets.  As time continues and if our spring-like conditions persist as expected, this problem will likely be dropped from the forecast.

Conditions in the backcountry have improved from earlier in the week.  The underlying pre-storm surface conditions are a factor in finding the best turns, and could make for tricky skinning conditions, but reports thus far suggest that there are some good turns available. Ski and ride with care and watch for the remote possibility of small avalanches or funky conditions carrying a skier or rider over steep or rocky terrain.  Ski and split board crampons could be helpful for egress out of steep terrain.

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Much thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season and a big thank you to all our participants!

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