Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Mar 22 – 23, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche danger could spike to HIGH on any slopes which are getting baked by sun. Avoid traveling on, or underneath such areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline may take a few days to settle and bond. Cornices are very large and also threaten slopes below.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–5
    Solar warming is likely to cause loose wet avalanches, especially on steep, rocky, south-facing terrain.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–8
    A weak interface down 1-2m remains concerning. While avalanches on this layer have become less frequent, those that do release are very large and destructive. Solar warming may spark renewed activity.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Friday-Sunday: Sunny. Light southerly winds. Freezing level rising to around 1500m in the afternoon and falling to valley floor at night.

Avalanche Summary

Over the last couple of days, little activity has been reported, except a size 3 natural avalanche on a north-east aspect and a size 1 storm slab, triggered by a skier. On Monday, natural avalanches up to size 3.5 failed on southerly aspects down about 100-150cm on the mid-February persistent weak layer. Avalanches releasing on this layer are becoming less frequent. Solar warming is of particular concern over the next few days, as it could destabilize storm slabs and cornices, potentially initiating deep failures on the mid-February layer. Be particularly wary of sunny aspects during the heat of the day.

Snowpack Summary

20-30 cm recent storm snow overlies various surfaces including settled snow, wind slabs and crusts. New wind slabs have formed in the alpine and at treeline. Solar warming last weekend left a melt-freeze crust up to about 2400 m on solar aspects and up to about 1500 m on all aspects. Cornices have grown large and unstable. A consolidated storm slab overlies weak surfaces that formed in early February. Now 1-2 m below the surface, these weaknesses include surface hoar, facets or crusts. Operators continue to express concern about the potential for deep releases on these interfaces.

Regions covered