Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

HEADS UP! HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS HAVE CREATED DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS!

The avalanche danger is HIGH on steep, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches are likely. Backcountry travel is not recommended in these areas.

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on mid and upper elevation south facing slopes.

Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills. Stick to low angle wind sheltererd terrain and avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2

    A heavy load of recent, new, and wind drifted snow has been added to a pre-existing slab on top of a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. With more than 2" of water weight in about 12 hours, and accumulations approaching 5" over the past week, it could be enough to tip the scales. We'll need some time and visibility to see if this event produced any natural avalanches down to this weak layer, but for now, assume that deep, dangerous, and un-survivable human triggered avalanches are likely. For now, all steep slopes facing NW through E should be avoided.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2

    Blowing and drifting snow has formed new wind slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E, but the gusty, erratic behavior of the winds may have deposited snow on a variety of aspects. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcroppings. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 3'-5' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those that face the north side of the compass.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Widespread instabilities within the new snow were observed yesterday. The new snow will be less sensitive today but soft slab avalanches up to 2' deep are still possible on all aspects today. Look for signs of instabilities such as cracking in the snow surface.

Avalanche Warning

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN MOAB HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.

* TIMING... 6 AM MST SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM MST SUNDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...FOR THE LA SAL MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER HAS RISEN TO HIGH.

* REASON/IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH WIND HAS CREATED WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW AND DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST.

STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES. AVOID TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: Deep and drifting snow have made the road to Geyser Pass trailhead largely impassable.

Grooming: Grooming will be temporarily on hold with so much new snow and a downed trees that need to be cleared.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 22" 72 Hour Snow 25" Base Depth in Gold Basin 54" Wind SW 15-25 G35 Temp 7F

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

Storm Totals in Gold Basin

Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

NWS Weather Forecast

Well that was a big one, the second such storm over 20" in December. We could see some lingering showers this morning with gradual clearing as the day progresses. As the trough exits the region, winds will shift to more westerly and then northerly averaging 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph and that spells cold! With highs in the single digits we'll see wind chill values well below 0F today. Tomorrow look for sunny skies and slightly warmer temps as a ridge of high pressure moves in.

Snowpack

Reports from yesterday were of widespread instabilities within the new snow. In addition, heavy snowfall and continuous wind loading has translated to a significant load being applied to our snowpack. This has added stress to a pre-existing slab on top of a persistent weak layer of sugary, October facets and it seems likely that we have reached a breaking point. We'll need some time and visibility to see if this event produced any natural avalanches down to this weak layer, but for now, assume that deep, dangerous, and un-survivable human triggered avalanches remain likely on steep slopes facing NW through E.

Additional Info

On Thursday night, UAC forecasters gathered to discuss the upcoming dangerous conditions.

General Announcements

Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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