Avalanche forecast

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Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche large enough to bury you is unlikely. Avoiding steep, rocky and wind-affected slopes will reduce your chances of triggering an avalanche. Be aware of the terrain you are connected to, as remote triggering is not out of the question.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A thick slab of snow sits above various weak layers on most slopes (video at right/below). Your odds of triggering an avalanche are greatest on steep, rocky slopes on the north half of the compass. Although triggering an avalanche is unlikely, these avalanches will be large enough to bury and injure you.

    You're most likely to impact these layers where the slab is thinner. Thin spots are common at the edge of a slab, near ridgelines, or along rocky, mid-slope ribs. Remotely triggering an avalanche from flat terrain near steep slopes remains a possibility.

Avalanche Discussion

Wind loading has pushed pause on our gradually improving stability. Unfortunately, we can't expect obvious signs of instability like snowpack cracking and collapses or whumpfs to highlight the danger. However, this lack of feedback does not mean a slope is safe. The uncertainty in predicting whether a slope is safe to ride is high, and the consequence of being wrong is severe. Multiple people could ski or ride a slope before triggering an avalanche. Persistent slab problems are tricky and aren't effectively managed with micro-scale route finding.

When faced with conditions like these, terrain management is our best tool. Utilizing lower-angled terrain, mostly sheltered from the wind, is a great baseline. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain, you can stack the odds in your favor by avoiding large avalanche paths with suspect thin spots and those with terrain traps such as creeks, trees, or gullies.

Although the snowpack structure remains poor on most aspects, we've seen the majority of recent activity on northerly and easterly aspects. A relative lack of activity on some aspects doesn't rule out the possibility of an avalanche.

Regions covered