Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Watch for ankle-biter chihuahuas—shallow wet loose avalanches—to start yapping by midday on sun-baked slopes. On the colder north side of the compass, the Rottweilers are still in the yard. Although the chances of triggering a thick, hard slab breaking on old weak layers have decreased, it remains the most dangerous and difficult problem to manage. These low-likelihood, high-consequence avalanches are most likely to be triggered from thin spots in the snowpack—near rock bands, steep rollovers, or wind-affected terrain where snow depths vary.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Slabs over buried weak layers 1.5 to 3 feet thick are typically stubborn to triggers and could be reactive in a few of the shallowest areas.  Obvious signs of instability are rare, and avalanches are most likely triggered from terrain features where slabs are thinner.  The north half of the compass has the most fragile weak layers buried in the middle and bottom of the snowpack. Avalanches can be remotely triggered from steep or adjacent flat terrain (see several videos illustrating this) and propagate widely. The most reliable strategy for managing this problem is to choose conservative slope angles or travel on southerly aspects where the snowpack structure is more spring-like.  On problematic aspects, avoid traveling in or near steep terrain where slabs are thin or variable in thickness, such as convexities, rocky areas, or wind-affected terrain.   

    Recent persistent slab activity from Upper Cement Creek.  (3/3/2026)

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Watch for shallow, point-release avalanches that shed the recent snow once the day warms up on sun-baked terrain.  Instabilities will first develop on east, then south, then west aspects as the sun warms the snow surface.  Time your travels in steep, consequential terrain before the snow gets too wet and mushy, or use sluff management techniques once the problem develops.    Move to colder aspects or lower slope angles to avoid the problem.

    Natural wet loose activity from steep, rocky, southerly facing terrain from this weekend.     

Avalanche Discussion

The Tale of Two Snowpacks

The chihuahas. On the southern side of the compass, recent warm spring weather has created a strong, trustworthy structure beneath the latest snow. Your primary concern is managing shallow wet sluffs that could develop on very steep slopes once surface crusts thaw into wet snow. Entrainment will usually be limited to the most recent snowfall sliding on old, hard crusts—generally about 2–8 inches. This is a relatively small and manageable problem, and these slopes offer a good option for those seeking steeper or more complex terrain. Good overnight refreezes, and high temperatures in the upper 30s should keep larger wet avalanches at bay. If you begin sinking deeply into an unsupportive snowpack, however, that would signal the potential for a larger exception.

The Rottweilers.  On the northern side of the compass, concerns for a larger and more dangerous avalanche persist due to well-developed weak layers buried by February storms. In general, slabs are thicker and more difficult to trigger, and the snowpack has shown the most improvement in the deeper Northwest Mountains. Slabs are thinner, and buried facet or depth hoar layers are more fragile in the shallower Southeast Mountains. In both zones, avoiding areas and terrain features with shallow snowpacks can help reduce your risk, though there is always some uncertainty when identifying these trigger points. Colorado’s first avalanche fatality of the year occurred this weekend in the Vail region on a shady aspect.

The cross breeds.  East and west aspects are transitioning between these two setups. Depending on elevation and whether a slope subtly tilts more north or south, you may find either avalanche problem. In some places, crusts in the upper snowpack provide additional strength for slab concerns, though that protection may weaken later in the day as crusts melt. If wet slab activity develops this week (the late-week heat wave looks most concerning), these aspects are the most suspect because meltwater will continue working its way down toward buried weak layers after a brief pause last weekend.

Regions covered