Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect generally low avalanche hazard in the mountains today. Keep an eye on sunny, wind‑protected slopes where a bit of wet-loose snow might start to misbehave. Expect a stout melt/freeze surface on most slopes. A few ok to good powder turns may be found on northerly aspects above 10,500', but the price of admission is getting ridiculously high with thin coverage, hard snow, and some above treeline ice patches. Always practice one-at-a-time travel through avalanche terrain while keeping eyes on your partners. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Warming temperatures will increase wet-avalanche hazard on sunny slopes today. These will generally be rare and small avalanches, as the snowpack is cold, and it will take a lot of sunshine on windless slopes to produce instabilities. Light to moderate winds are forecast today. 

    This hazard will be very rare on southerly slopes below treeline, as snow cover there is mostly gone.  More polar (northerly) slopes near/above treeline will probably remain too cool to produce wet instabilities. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    It's worth mentioning that persistent weak layers still exist in the snowpack. The layers of concern are facets above and below the holiday ice layers. The ice layers are generally found about 1/3 to 1/2 up, from the bottom of the snowpack. Recent tests indicate that only facets and depth hoar (found below the ice layers) will produce failures in the snowpack, and the propensity for these failures to propagate is trending downward. Four ECTX results were documented yesterday. Some rounding of the facets was also observed, and recently measured temperature gradients suggest that these facets will continue to strengthen.  

    This is a very low-probability but high-consequence problem that could still be triggered in northerly terrain. There are always some knowledge gaps, and some uncertainty about the snowpack and avalanche probabilities, even at low danger. The forecast will continue to list this problem until it becomes inactive (very close to that now) or until these facet layers finally move on. Check out Mathieu's March 7 forecast discussion for a brief season history of the persistent slab problem. 

    (2/28/2026)

    The image shows a slab that just slid off during an extended column test (ECT) at a KPAC recreational level 1 course. Propagating instabilities like this are getting harder to find. ECTP17 NW aspect at 11,500' on 2/28. Failure occurred in facets/depth hoar below the holiday ice layer. 

    Video image-still from Mike Farrell. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures are warming today, but a cold snowpack and breezy conditions will keep the likelihood of wet loose avalanches low.  However, if you encounter wet snow or are sinking into the snowpack, move to a cooler, less sunny slope. 

Most access and egress locations have lost snow connectivity due to snow melt over the last week.  Expect additional transitions and challenges when moving from zone to zone across the mountain. With the melt/freeze surface frozen in the mornings, and patches of exposed holiday ice layers, today's a great day for ski or splitboard crampons, traction devices, and at the very least an ice axe or whippet attachment.  Knowing how to use this equipment and staying conservative could prevent a slip-and-slide situation and save you a few hundred feet of unexpected elevation loss, not to mention a serious injury.

A small group of dedicated individuals who have not given up on winter continues to find "hard to get to", but pleasurable turns.  Check out their observations here.   If you find yourself out in the backcountry, consider submitting an observation.  Your contributions are greatly appreciated!! 

Northern Arizona locations just experienced the warmest Dec-Jan-Feb (meteorological winter) period on record.  See graph. In general, warm and dry spring conditions look to dominate the foreseeable future. On March 8, the Snowside Canyon SNOTEL snow depth is 67% of the median, and SWE is 75% of the median. Records go back to the 1997/1998 season.

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