Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A mediocre refreeze may provide a short window of supportive snow during the morning hours.  You'll find lower risk while sliding across surface crusts, but as surface crusts break down, wet avalanches can be triggered.  Recent wet avalanches have entrained the entire snowpack, creating dangerous cement-mixer style debris.  If you sink deeply into mushy snow, it's time to head to lower-angle terrain to avoid triggering a nasty wet slide.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Recent wet slab avalanche activity has most often been triggered by smaller wet loose avalanches releasing higher up on the slope. These avalanches can also be human-triggered. The heavy weight of the wet snow will make skiing out of one of these cement mixers nearly impossible.  Temperatures have cooled slightly over the past two days, and natural avalanche activity has greatly diminished as meltwater drainage channels have established on many aspects and elevations.   Recent natural activity occurred on the shoulder aspects, east to northeast and west to northwest.  As the warm period drags on, wet slab distribution focuses on shadier aspects above 11,000 feet. Wet avalanches are less likely early in the day while the snow surface remains frozen and meltwater production is limited. The hazard increases as the snowpack warms, crusts thaw, and/or free water moves deeper into the snowpack.

    This wet slab avalanche ran midday on Tuesday near Ruby Peak.  It broke several feet deep, starting on a northeast aspect and propagating into an east aspect. (3/24/2026)

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches are the most concerning where you sink deeply into wet snow. In these areas, a small point-release avalanche can entrain the entire snowpack, becoming powerful and large. In some cases, small wet loose avalanches also trigger bigger wet slab avalanches as they run downslope. Reduce your exposure to this avalanche problem by traveling early in steep terrain before surface crusts thaw or moving to lower slope angles.   

    Full-depth wet loose avalanches were easy to trigger on Thursday.  Similar conditions may develop today. (3/26/2026) 

Avalanche Discussion

Most mountain locations dropped into the mid-30s, which will create a thin, superficial freeze on many slopes.  You can find lower risk conditions while surface crusts remain frozen and supportive to skis or board, but once those crusts break down, human-triggered avalanches become problematic.  These two videos from earlier in the week highlight the conditions you might encounter once conditions warm during the day (Elk Creek, Ruby Peak).  For an overview of this week's wet avalanche cycle, check out the Weekly Summary.

As the abnormally warm weather drags on into the second week, natural avalanche activity slowly declines.  Scroll down these visual aids to the Avalanches Over Time chart to see the downtrend in natural activity.  This decline is due in part to slightly cooler temperatures.  Even though fewer natural avalanches are expected, human-triggered avalanches could become likely on some steep slopes once surface crusts thaw.  Nearly two weeks of warm weather without a solid refreeze have dramatically altered the snowpack.  Wet avalanche concerns have largely shifted to shady aspects towards the end of the natural cycle, with notably less activity on sunny aspects.

Riding conditions have been quite poor over the past two weeks.  You won't find amazing conditions by riding dangerously wet slopes, likely a challenging and awkward descent.  If you do head out, start early and finish early.  Cooler temperatures and snow may return to the region next workweek.  Some models suggest up to 2 feet of snow over several days next week.  You may need to shift your mindset back to storm snow instabilities if the weather forecast verifies next week.

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