Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and intense sunshine are creating dangerous avalanche conditions across the East South zone. Avalanches could fail 2-4 ft deep, break incredibly wide, and easily be large enough to kill you. Wet avalanches of all types are becoming increasingly likely as each day warms. Keep your terrain selection simple by avoiding travel on and under large slopes greater than 30 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    This persistent slab problem is getting scarier and scarier as each day warms up. Warming through the day could make triggering a 2-4 foot deep, unsurvivable avalanche easy. 

    These avalanches that fail on these weak layers could break incredibly wide and far. You may or may not receive feedback before triggering one of these avalanches. Several skiers or riders might traverse a slope before it avalanches—tracks on a slope do not indicate stability.

    Recent strong winds have blown from multiple directions and have built slabs of drifted snow all over the compass. These wind slabs ( or cornices) could be excellent trigger points for larger, wider, and deadlier avalanches. 

    You can reduce your risk by staying off (and out from beneath) slopes steeper than about 30 degrees at middle and upper elevations. 

    (3/7/2024)

    You could trigger persistent slabs of this size on Friday. 

    Skiers triggered this large avalanche on a south-facing aspect around 6500ft on Van Epps Peak. They triggered this slide while climbing an already established skin track for a second lap. 

    Photo: Aaron Benevich

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    We’re entering the first warm-up of the season, so look for wet avalanches on any slope that receives direct sun. We may start seeing increased activity on more shaded aspects (N-E) as temperatures climb. The most common type of wet avalanches will be the fan-shaped wet loose avalanches, but we can't totally eliminate the idea of larger, wet slabs as temperatures rise. Wet slabs are notoriously hard to forecast and manage, but it is worth keeping in mind in areas that hold soft, sloppy, wet snow. Pinwheels and rollerballs shedding on a slope indicate the snow surface is softening, and loose snow avalanches may soon follow. If you're finding wet, mushy snow at the snow surface it is a good time to think about heading for home or moving to more shaded aspects. 

    An example of a wet loose avalanche that was triggered from a tree bomb. 

    Photo: Kaitlin Harrigan

Avalanche Discussion

The great meltdown has commenced across the East South. We’re heading into a dangerous period as we see the warmest temperatures we have seen all season. What’s scary is that we know we have a persistent slab problem present. In the neighboring East Central, we have seen multiple, large human triggered persistent slab releases in the last week. With warming temperatures, wet slab avalanches will become increasingly likely over the coming days. This warm up will be an excellent reason to dial back your terrain selection. Instead seek out sunny ridgelines or flat meadows far away from large avalanche paths.  

The Cascades are heading into a stretch of very warm sunny weather. It will be the first big, spring-like warming event of the year, with high temperatures in the 50's and freezing levels over 10,000'. Very warm conditions through the weekend could produce significant slab and loose snow avalanches. 

As with any warming event, there is a high level of uncertainty as to where, when, or even if this scale of avalanche activity will occur. On the other hand, big natural avalanches aren't really the kinds of things that should be taken lightly. It's worth noting that smaller wet loose or wind slab avalanches, cornice falls, or snow shedding from cliffs can provide the trigger needed to pull out a very large avalanche. When planning for the weekend, consider that this is one of the times when an 'improbable' avalanche might actually occur.

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