Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

We have issued a Backcountry Avalanche Warning through the National Weather Service.  Avalanche danger is HIGH at all elevations as heavy precipitation and strong winds are making very dangerous avalanche conditions with large natural avalanches very likely. These may run long distances into lower elevations. Travel in or below avalanche terrain is not recommended.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

There will be intermittent traffic delays Sunday January 12th, 2025 on the Seward Highway for Avalanche Hazard Reduction work from mileposts 38 to 37 on the Seward Highway, at the Seward/ Sterling Wye. Motorists should expect delays of 45-60 minutes between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM. Updates will be posted on the 511 system. http://511.alaska.gov/

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Last night brought yet another round of intense weather, and it is still snowing, raining, and blowing this morning. Large natural avalanches failing within new and windblown snow alone will likely be 2 to 4' deep or bigger, and have the potential to run long distances into lower elevations. They may also impact weak layers of snow buried deeper in the snowpack, producing even larger avalanches (more on this in Problem 2 below). If anyone is trying to get out to experience the stormy mayhem, be sure to avoid traveling on or below steep terrain. 

    There was only a brief break between the two major storms over the past 48 hours. The first round of precipitation that finished mid-day yesterday brought snow down to around 500' at times, but the latest round is warming up and we are currently seeing rain around 1100' this morning. Including the latest round of heavy precipitation that arrived late last night, storm totals since Friday evening are as follows:

    • Girdwood: 2.5" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), equaling 2' snow above 2000'.
    • Turnagain Pass: 2.6" SWE equaling 2' snow above 2000'
    • Summit Lake: 0.8" SWE equalling 8" snow above 2000'.

    We are expecting another 1.5 to 2" of precipitation during the day today, which will equal around 2' of snow at elevations around 2000'. Unfortunately, this is falling as rain as high as 2000', at least for some periods during the storm. We are also expecting to see winds continuing to average 50 to 70 mph with gusts over 100 mph. This is a major storm event, and avalanche danger is through the roof as a result.

    (1/12/2025)

    Predicted snow totals from 3 a.m. this morning through 3 a.m. Monday. Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    As mentioned above, the major loading event that we are currently experiencing is adding a lot of stress to deeper layers of weak snow within the snowpack. These weak layers look slightly different at Turnagain Pass than they do at Summit Lake, but those subtleties are not important today. These have the potential to produce very large avalanches 4 to 6 feet deep or deeper in both zones. It will be interesting to see which weak layers break in the aftermath of this avalanche cycle, but the main point for now is to stay out of avalanche terrain since there is a good chance of very large avalanches running long distances. We saw this happen less than a week ago, and are expecting similar activity today.

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