Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 19th, 2019–Nov 20th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

The Winter Permit System will go into effect Wed, Nov 20. Permits are required to enter restricted areas within Glacier National Park.

Reactive slabs are catching early season travelers by surprise. Choose conservative lines today.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will begin a clearing trend around Rogers Pass for the remainder of the week. A mix of sun and cloud today, with light NE winds, and fzl at 1400m. Wednesday should be sun with clouds, light NW winds, and fzl around 1000m. Thursday will be similar to Wed with a weak inversion bringing warmer alpine temps.

Snowpack Summary

35-50cm of new storm snow overlies an early season snowpack, complete with a series of melt-freeze crusts throughout the height of snow. Mod/strong winds and mild temps have created a persistent slab in alpine and tree-line lee features. These slabs sit upon a crust/surface hoar/stellar layer and are easily triggered by human loading.

Avalanche Summary

Human-triggered avalanches to size 2 were reported from Balu Pass yesterday and the Asulkan Hut area 2 days ago. The Balu Pass avalanche buried the person to their neck and gear was lost. Numerous natural avalanches to size 2.5-3 were observed from Tupper, Macdonald, and Cheops during the storm Sunday morning.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Warm temps, up to 50cm of new snow, and mod/strong SW winds have created a reactive persistent slab. This sits atop a crust/surface hoar/stellar layer, which is an ideal sliding layer for this avalanche problem.

  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5