Avalanche Forecast

A strong well consolidated snowpack exist in most locations in the Olympics. Cold temperatures have allowed surface snow to freeze creating a supportable surface crust. On slopes receiving direct sun, this surface crust softens during the day and re-freezes at night.Warm and wet weather the first week of February has created a spring-like relatively uniform snowpack. No layers of concern exist in the snowpack at this time.

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald and NPS Rangers traveled in the Mt Angeles areas Thursday, 2/8. The snowpack was described as a fairly uniform, well drained late spring snowpack, lacking any distinctive layering. There were a few glide avalanches observed, likely releasing last Saturday during a rain event.

Avalanches will continue to be unlikely Monday. Another day of cool clear weather will minimize avalanche hazard in the Olympics, resulting in no significant avalanche problems. Firm frozen surface snow will soften on slopes receiving direct sun later in the day. Shaded slopes will remain frozen and firm.Several non-avalanche-related hazards exits in the area Monday. Firm surface snow will make travel difficult and potentially dangerous. Avoid steep icy slopes where it will be difficult to stop a fall. Large holes have been reported in the snowpack due to glide cracks, creeks, and rocks. Stay away from these openings which pose a threat to backcountry travelers.  Use appropriate travel techniques Monday to reduce your exposure to avalanche terrain and non-avalanche hazards.

A compact and moisture-starved low moved quickly to the south of the forecast area on Sunday morning and now sits over west-central Oregon, having bypassed the Pacific Northwest of almost any moisture. As the low continues to track S-SE, mostly sunny skies and light northly flow predominate over the forecast area. There are a few notable exceptions such as at Hurricane Ridge where the northerly flow is backing clouds against the mountains, but the clouds should dissipate by the late afternoon hours. Clouds also still linger around Mt. Hood on Sunday afternoon and evening. The large offshore high pressure re-builds south of Alaska on Sunday. Sunday night the lower-level flow will switch to easterly, allowing colder area to infiltrate western Washington from the east side of the Cascades and BC coast range. Northerly flow continues aloft.On Monday, the offshore high pressure tilts into British Columbia, keeping the sunny weather  in place and with moderating temperatures over the Pacific Northwest. Light or calm winds are expected.On Monday night,  the high slides southward over the region, bringing further moderation aloft, with a good inversion likely to set up, particularly on the east slopes of the Cascades. Light or calm winds are expected.

On Tuesday the high pressure will be directly over the forecast area, bringing slightly spring-like weather to the region with light westerly flow developing. On Tuesday night, a shortwave trough splits the ridge, diving S-SW on a trajectory toward our region. The trough will be located over central British Columbia on Tuesday night. As the trough and associated frontal system approach, 9000 ft westerly winds will become moderate to occasionally strong over the central Cascades. Light to moderate snow will arrive, mostly after midnight for the Washington Cascades (mainly near and west of the crest) and Olympics.On Wednesday, the trough arrives in the early morning hours over the Pacific Northwest and digs deeper during the morning hours, before passing east of the area by nightfall. The west slopes of the Cascades should experiences moderate snowfall at low snow levels, with likely greater amounts in central-south Cascades and Hood regions. Wednesday night, snow showers end as a ridge rebuilds to the west and shifts east into our area. N-NW flow will predominate over the region.On Thursday, the ridge continues to edge into our region as any lingering light snow showers end. Fair weather returns.