Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 17th, 2017–Dec 18th, 2017

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

We are not sure how the snowpack is reacting to the 20 to 60cm of snow that fell over the weekend. Tread cautiously out there as you continue to gather information about the storm, wind and deep slabs that exist in our early winter snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

The Northwest Coast is expected to be relatively cool and dry for the forecast period as a more zonal pattern favors the regions along the 49th parallel. Dribs and drabs of snow are possible on Monday before yet another ridge takes over for the foreseeable future.MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 500m, moderate west/southwest wind, 1 to 5cm of snow. TUESDAY: Sky clearing through the day, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, no new snow expected.WEDNESDAY: A few clouds, freezing level around 400m, strong to extreme northwest wind, no new snow expected.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday several size 1 to 1.5 wind slabs were observed in steep terrain. Poor visibility likely limited observations, it is expected that a natural avalanche cycle occurred during the storm.

Snowpack Summary

The region picked up 20 to 60cm of storm snow over the weekend accompanied by winds out of the southwest, west, northwest, and even a bit of southeast. This has likely led to the development of a cohesive slab, especially in wind exposed features. These new storm and wind slabs rest on a rain saturated snowpack between valley bottom and 800m. Above 800m, the new storm snow rests on settled old snow, or a melt freeze crust that is 3 to 15cm thick. Below this crust the mid-pack is strong, but there are reports of a feathery surface hoar layer down 50 to 60cm in sheltered locations. There is a second prominent crust that is associated with facets that was buried at the end of October, look for this widespread interface down around 100 to 200cm below the surface.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

20 to 60cm of snow fell during the weekend with wind from the SW, W, NW and even SE. This snow is likely settling into a cohesive slab that rests on a variety of old surfaces, including a prominent crust.

Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing or cracking.Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, aspect and exposure to wind.The weekends storm snow will require a few days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

A significant new load has been added to the snowpack and the chance of triggering a deep persistent slab has likely increased. Scale the objectives back a bit as we all continue to gather information about this slab.

Be especially cautious in areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Storm slabs in motion could step down and trigger deep persistent slab avalanches.Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, carefully select genuinely safe spots to re-group.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4