Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 28th, 2018 4:12PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

michael.olsthoorn, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

More snow on the way associated with strong winds for the next couple of days will change the hazard quickly. Minimize your exposure.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Weather forecast is indicating 17cm of snowfall for Monday with 55 km/h SW winds. Temperature in the alpine is to be -4c and freezing level near 1800m.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2 was observed.

Snowpack Summary

Lost happening at different elevations. At tree line (below 2250m) and below tree line, there is the Jan 6 surface hoar layer that is quite visible in the snowpack. Today, our test results on this layer were in the hard range but we expect that to vary depending on the valley. The one thing that is consistent with this layer is that the test results always show it to be sudden planar (clean sheer and pops). Something to keep an eye out as well with the snow arriving on Monday.Above 2250m, the Jan 6 surface hoar layer is more or less is gone. However the Dec 15 surface hoar layer is down about 80cm. And here is where it gets interesting. We have seen some larger avalanches go on this layer and then quiet down. On Monday Jan 29, the forecast is for about 20cm with 55 km/h winds. That means more wind slabs and more load on this layer which is likely to tip the odds for more avalanche activity.

Problems

Wind Slabs

These are multiple slabs that are laminated together. Stepping down to deeper instabilities is likely. More snow and wind on its way to possibly tip the odds for greater avalanche activity.

Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopesBe careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Persistent Slabs

As snow load increases, the "triggerability" of this layer will go up.

Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Jan 29th, 2018 2:00PM