Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Clear and cold for the foreseeable future, with overnight lows near -22 Celsius in some locations. TUESDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Tree line temperature around -14 Celsius. Light winds becoming moderate northerly 30-40 Km/hr.WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries possible. Tree line temperatures around -14 Celsius. Winds moderate westerly 20-30 Km/hr.THURSDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Tree line temperature around -12 Celsius. Winds light westerly.

On Sunday we received reports of several wind slab avalanches to size 2, on a wide range of aspects. See here for a good example in the MIN report. On Saturday explosives control work produced several storm slab avalanches to size 2.5 on a wide variety of aspects near tree line. In Rogers Pass a week ago, skiers remotely triggered a size 3.5 persistent slab avalanche from 40 m away on a south-facing, cross-loaded slope at 2600 m. On the same day, a helicopter remotely triggered a size 3 persistent slab avalanche on a similar aspect / elevation in the Selkirks a little closer to Revelstoke. Although deeper, persistent avalanche activity is becoming less frequent, these recent avalanches point to the continued reactivity and destructive potential of these layers.

40-60 cm of recent storm snow has settled into a slab in the upper snowpack. Strong winds, most recently from the north / east, shifted these accumulations into deeper, reactive slabs in wind-exposed terrain. These accumulations overlie a mix of older wind slabs in exposed higher elevation terrain, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, a rain crust below 1600m and surface hoar on sheltered slopes.Below the snow surface several persistent weak layers make up a troublesome snowpack. In the top 1.5-2.5 m of the snowpack, two surface hoar/ crust layers buried in January can be found. Expect to find one or the other of these on all aspects and elevations.Deeper in the snowpack (around 200 cm deep) is a facet/crust/surface hoar layer from December, most prevalent at and below tree line.Near the base of the snowpack is a crust/facet combo, most likely to be triggered from thin spots in the alpine.All of these layers have produced large avalanches recently. The wide distribution and ongoing reactivity of these layers suggests that avoidance through choosing simple terrain is the best strategy.