Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 15th, 2023 2:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada jfmichaud, Avalanche Canada

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A mix of precipitation is expected in the mountains and precipitation rates are uncertain.

Know how to adapt your objectives to the conditions encountered in the mountains, especially if the amount of snow is greater than anticipated

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observed or reported.

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Snowpack Summary

There is some uncertainty about the precipitation that will fall in the mountains on Thursday morning. In areas protected from the wind, we can expect 4 to 8 cm of new wet snow on top of the 15 to 20 cm of snow received in the last week. Below the treeline, the snowpack depth on the January 18 crust is about 50-60 cm. In the alpine, strong southwest winds will have blown this snow onto the leeward slopes. These accumulations will lie directly on the crust, or on surfaces previously hardened by the wind. A great deal of spatial variability can be expected. Travel will remain very difficult. In general, the height of the snow cover will vary from 70 to 90 cm in the valley to 100 to 150 cm in the mid-mountains.

Weather Summary

Forecast for the Chic-Chocs ridges and summits.

Synopsis: Passage of a major low pressure system north of the Chic-Chocs bringing warm temperatures and possibly mixed precipitation, followed by a cold front on Friday. Wednesday night and overnight: Snow, 4 to 8 cm. Freezing rain possible. Wind southwest, 60 to 80 km/h. High -2. Freezing level at 500 m. Thursday: Rain or freezing rain early in the day, then clearing in the afternoon. Wind west, 50 to 60 km/h. Maximum 1. Freezing level at 750 m. Friday: Snow, 2 to 5 cm. Wind north, 10 to 30 km/h. High -14. Saturday: Sunny. Wind west, 30 to 50 km/h. High -10.For more details, check the Alpine Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

With the predicted warming, it is possible that the new snow will be weakened and small, wet loose avalanches could be observed or triggered. The problem is more important in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Depending on the amount of snow received, wind slabs may have formed in the alpine and at the treeline, in heavily loaded areas such as avalanche start zones, under terrain breaks or in laterally loaded areas. As many surfaces were previously icy, it is possible that the adhesion on them is not very good.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 16th, 2023 3:00PM