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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 28th, 2023–Jan 29th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

The cold arctic air is here! Expect cold temperatures around -25C with light winds. The newly buried melt freeze crust down 10cm is making skiing challenging up to 2200m.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry avalanches at treeline and below up to size 2. No new slab avalanche activity was observed.

Snowpack Summary

On average 10cm of new snow fell at treeline with some areas seeing more and some a bit less. Valley bottoms (where snow is needed the most) was where it was less with only around 5cm accumulation. This new snow is overlying a thin melt freeze crust up to 2100m that makes the skiing very challenging but so far the bond appears to be good. The upper snowpack continues to strengthen with the only notable sheer at the interface with the deeper weak facets in the moderate range. Isolated windslabs were observed in alpine areas on southern aspects from the recent northerly winds but they do not extend far downslope.

As the snowpack above the weaker base becomes more cohesive the potential for wide propagation increases. This will be a common theme this winter and you should always be thinking about consequences of an avalanche.

Turns are pretty hard to come by as one forecaster described the area as the worst they have ever seen.....

Weather Summary

The cold arctic air is here! A high pressure ridge is over us right now that will keep the chance for flurries minimal to non-existent. Cold temperatures will continue with winds out of the NW in the moderate range at upper elevations.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Thin areas are where this layer will be easiest to trigger. Be thinking about wide propagations as the snowpack above is more cohesive that before...

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Windslabs in alpine terrain along ridgelines. Reverse loading has these on Southern aspects.

Aspects: North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2