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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 1st, 2012–Mar 2nd, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

The snowpack is tricky to predict at the moment. Backcountry travel requires local knowledge, extensive experience and training. Please read the new Forecaster's Blog Post.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Friday: An approaching warm front from the NW will bring light snow amounts near 5 cm. Ridgetop winds moderate from the SW. Treeline temperature near -5. Freezing levels could rise to 900m. Saturday: Snow amounts up to 10 cm. Ridgetop winds moderate-strong from the SW. Treeline temperatures near -2. Freezing levels rising to 12-1500 m. Sunday: Snow amounts up to 10 cm. Ridgetop winds moderate from the SW. Freezing levels near 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

A a rider triggered size 2 avalanche occurred on the Duffy. The sliding layer being the aforementioned preserved stellaras that exist down 30 cm. The Coquihalla saw a brief natural solar induced cycle up to size 2, all slides stopping mid-track. As reports of natural activity have started to taper off, rider triggers are likely and still occurring. Backcountry travel requires local knowledge, extensive experience and training. The obvious clues that show snowpack instability may not be there. You need to dig deep, do your detective work and make good decisions. With forecast snow, wind and rising freezing levels, you can expect to see the danger ratings elevate over the weekend. Visit the link below to check out the recent incidents in your area: https://avalanche.ca/cac/library/incident-report-database/view

Snowpack Summary

Changing winds have created pockets of wind slab exist on multiple aspects in upper elevations. Thin sun crusts are seen on solar aspects. Dribs and drabs of new snow fell over the week, while the main bulk of the storm snow fell last weekend. In both areas, down 30-40 cm is a preserved stellar interface that is providing easy, sudden planar test results, and a rutschblock score of 2 (whole block failing). The mid February interface (crusts at lower elevations, and buried surface hoar in sheltered locations) is down approximately 60 cm below the surface. The weak interfaces have created tricky snowpack conditions. Below this the lower snowpack is well bonded and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Changing winds have created more widespread wind slabs. Cracking, whumphing and/or hollow drum like sounds beneath you are all indicators.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Forecast snow through the weekend may add to the current storm snow instabilities; especially in areas that overlie preserved stellars, facets, buried surface hoar and crusts. Avalanches sliding on this layer may be large and destructive.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 6