Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2014–Jan 14th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure will build to the south deflecting a series of storms at the North Coast driving freezing levels into the alpine. A sub-tropical moisture stream looks to feed these systems so expect moderate to heavy precipitation especially in the north of the region. The precipitation will likely fall as rain in the south becoming snow further north.Tonight and Tuesday: Heavy snow becoming rain / Strong to extreme southwest winds / Freezing levels rising overnight to 1700m.Wednesday: Mainly cloudy / Light south west winds / Freezing level to drop to 900mThursday: Mainly cloudy / light southwest winds / Freezing levels 1900m

Avalanche Summary

It sounds like things are starting to wake up with the warming trend and intensifying precipitation producing storm slab avalanche across the region ranging in size from 1 to 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Reports suggest that the snowpack is shallower and more faceted in the northern of the region, in the south it is deeper with more wind slab problems. Professionals in the area note there is much more variability in snow cover this year compared to most years.Around the Skeena corridor 70-80cm of settling storm snow overlies a variety of old surfaces including surface hoar in sheltered locations, and wind-affected snow at upper elevations. Windslabs are developing on north to north east lee features. Depending on your location, you may find a facet/crust combo or surface hoar from early in January sitting below the storm snow surface. Report suggest these layers are gaining strength; however, they may be worth keeping an eye on as the snow load above them increases.Below this the mid and lower snowpack is gaining strength. The exception is where a layer of week snow is lingering just above the ground in the shallower snowpack found in the North of the region.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Warming temperatures combined with moderate to heavy precipitation will likely trigger a widespread natural storm avalanche cycle. Where surface hoar from earlier in the month is buried this could produces large and destructive avalanches.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

The forecast storm will be the first real test of a weak layer of buried facets near the ground that continues to be a concern in the north of the region.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 6