Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level remains near 500-600 m and winds are light and variable. Wednesday: Periods of snow – 5 cm. The freezing level is around 800 m and winds are moderate from the SW-SE. Thursday: Cloudy with light snow. The freezing level is near 1000 m. Ridge winds are moderate from the SW.

On Sunday, there was a report of a size 2 wind slab avalanche that was remotely triggered by a skier in the mountains north of Pemberton. It was triggered from a thin snowpack area and released on a steep cross-loaded slope about 50 m away. Nearby, a cornice fall also triggered a size 1.5 slab on the wind-loaded slope below. There were no new reports of avalanches from the southern part of the region on Sunday.

In the south, 40-70 cm of recent storm snow sits on a widespread and generally supportive rain crust that was buried on Jan. 28. The bond to the crust appears to be fairly good but at least one notable storm snow weakness was observed 10 cm above the crust. Fresh pockets of wind slab may also form in immediate lee features. The combination of heavy storm loading, rain, and warm temperatures likely flushed out the mid-January persistent weakness in most areas in the Cascades. Further north, generally 20-40 cm of dry storm snow overlies the late-Jan rain crust below around 1800-2000 m. Above this elevation the new snow sits on settled storm snow or previously wind affected surfaces. Fresh pockets of wind slab are likely in exposed lee terrain. Where it still exists, the mid-January surface hoar layer is between 60 and 130 cm below the surface. This persistent weakness could be lingering on higher elevation slopes that did not previously avalanche and triggering remains a concern.