Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday

Clear skies and cold temperatures are forecast for Monday night. Cloud should start to build during the morning as the wind veers to the west and increases to moderate. Expect about 10 cm of snow Tuesday afternoon and another 10 cm by Wednesday morning. Wednesday is expected to be unsettled with flurries, moderate winds, and rising freezing levels. A warm front should move in from the Pacific on Thursday bringing strong southerly winds, high freezing levels, and heavy precipitation.

Some natural activity was reported from Sunday to size 1.5 on steep solar aspects in the afternoon. A couple of natural dry slab avalanches were reported from the Bear Pass highway corridor that were up to size 2.5 and may have been cornice triggered. Also, a couple of skier controlled and one skier remote triggered avalanche were reported releasing in isolated windslab pockets that were about 30-40 cm deep.

Windslabs should be settling and bonding. There is between 70-100 cm of snow above the buried weak layer of decomposed and fragmented crystals that has been giving moderate shears in stability tests. Some areas are reporting a buried surface hoar from early February that is buried at the same depth. The weak layer may be triggered by light additional loads at treeline and below. This interface is variable, it consists of a strong melt freeze crust below 1000m, above 1000 m exists facets, surface hoar (in more sheltered areas), sun crust or wind press. The surface hoar is not widespread but is responsible for much of the larger avalanches that occurred recently. Areas below treeline are quite variable. There are spring like conditions with a melt-freeze crust in some areas, and others are still experiencing winter at lower elevations.