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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 6th, 2016–Dec 7th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Make conservative terrain choices because the storm snow will take longer than usual to settle.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, light north winds, treeline temperatures at -8.THURSDAY: Flurries with accumulations of 5-15 cm by the afternoon, 30-50 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperature at -6.FRIDAY: 20-50 cm of new snow, 20-40 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperature at -4.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, storm slabs were very touchy with numerous size 1 skier triggered avalanches running on all aspects, and several size 1.5-2 avalanches triggered remotely. The avalanches were running on a widespread melt-freeze crust below the storm snow, which will continue to be touchy with human triggers.

Snowpack Summary

Monday delivered 40-60 cm of new snow to the South Coast, with the heaviest accumulations on the North Shore. The new snow likely sits above a supportive melt-freeze crust, providing a bed surface for storm slabs to run on. The new snow was not bonding well with the crust on Tuesday, and may take longer than usual to stabilize due to the cold arctic air currently over the region. The lower snowpack is well settled and strong. Total snowpack depths are 160-200 cm at treeline, with isolated pockets deep enough for avalanches at below treeline elevations.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

40-60 cm of recent storm snow sits above a widespread rain crust and is expected to be touchy to human triggers. Storm slabs will be extra thick and reactive on leeward features.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Avoid steep, open slopes.Evaluate unsupported slopes critically.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 2