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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2013–Jan 6th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

If there's more than 15 cm new snow by Sunday morning, raise alpine and treeline ratings to Considerable.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday: 5-10 cm new snow, mostly affecting the south of the region. Generally light southeasterly winds sometimes gusting to 40 km/h. Treeline temperatures around -5C. Monday: varying amounts of new snow, from 2 cm in dry areas to 20 cm in high snowfall areas in the south of the region. Moderate to strong southeasterly winds gusting to 50 km/h. Treeline temperatures around -5C. Tuesday: Light snow, most likely arriving later on in the day. Mostly light winds during the day, increasing later on. Freezing level rising to 1300 m in the afternoon. Note: the current weather pattern is not well defined by weather models. There is the possibility for significant variations from the above best estimates.

Avalanche Summary

A skier triggered a small hard slab on Wednesday and was knocked off his feet. Glide slabs have been releasing in steep smooth rocky terrain. Otherwise, there has been little recent avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs overlie a generally settled snowpack, with no significant weak layers reported in the upper or mid snowpack. Current surfaces include surface hoar, sun crusts and facets. These may provide a weak interface with forecast new snow. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer exists which is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps by heavy triggers in steep, shallow, rocky terrain where more facetting has taken place.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow may not bond well to the old snow surface. Winds are also likely to transport snow onto downwind slopes, leaving wind slabs behind.
Note recent avalanche activity.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Highmark or enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.>Start on small terrain and use safe slope-cutting techniques to cut the top of slopes before riding them.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4