Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 31st, 2015 8:49AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada jlammers, Avalanche Canada

The Avalanche Danger will rise as new snow accumulates throughout the day on Sunday. Watch for wind slabs in lee terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

A series of pacific frontal systems will bring snowfall to the region throughout the forecast period. There is some model disagreement with forecast snowfall amounts; however, some models are calling for up to 10cm on Sunday and 10cm on Monday. Very light accumulations are forecast for Tuesday. Winds should remain moderate from the southwest with freezing levels hovering around 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches reported. I would expect a round of wind slab activity with new snow and wind forecast for Sunday

Snowpack Summary

Last week snow surfaces were heavily saturated by rain up to at least 2100m. Pretty much all snow surfaces now sport a hard frozen crust. At the highest elevations you might find dense, stubborn wind slabs in lee terrain. New snow and wind forecast for Sunday will likely form new wind slabs. These wind slabs may be particularly reactive due to the underlying crust.Deeper snowpack weaknesses have been largely rendered inactive by the strong capping crust layer. If there is an area of concern for deeper weaknesses, it would be in the north of the region near Goldbridge, where a deep persistent slab from 26-Jan was remote-triggered on surface hoar buried 70 cm below the surface. Steep convexities and thin-to-thick trigger areas in the high alpine may still have the potential to release a slab in this part of the region.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
New snow and moderate southwest winds are expected to form new wind slabs in higher elevation lee terrain. Wind slabs may be especially reactive due to an underlying crust.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 1st, 2015 2:00PM