Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
The primary avalanche danger has shifted to lower elevations, mainly below treeline, where Loose Wet avalanches remain possible. Refreezing surface snow with little new snow will limit the avalanche danger at higher elevations.
Detailed Forecast
Rain showers at lower elevations below treeline Saturday will maintain wet and weak surface snow, making Loose Wet avalanches possible on steep slopes, generally over 35 degrees.Â
Cooling will allow for gradually refreezing surface snow near and above treeline. The newly forming crust will limit the possibility of avalanches. Only light amounts of new snow is expected in a showery weather pattern Saturday with generally light winds. This should not create a significant avalanche problem in higher terrain.
If local areas are receiving greater than forecast new snow or rain, be prepared to change travel plans and remain on lower angled slopes and avoid travel below steeper terrain.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Cooling and clouds arriving late Friday is allowing for previous wet and weak surface snow to begin re-freezing and consolidating, especially near and above treeline.
Wet surface snow conditions continue at lower elevations lacking a re-freeze.
A strong and high pressure has brought very warm temperatures to the Olympics from Monday through Friday. Temperatures at Hurricane Ridge have not fallen below freezing since Sunday night (4/22). The shallow or non-existent surface refreeze likely created unstable and poorly bonded snow within the upper 1-2 feet of the snowpack.
Aided by the recent warm weather, the Olympic snowpack has consolidated 2 ft since it's season maximum near and above treeline on 4/17.Â
Observations
A National Park ranger flew over the Blue Glacier on Mt. Olympus on 4/25 and observed small Loose Wet avalanches on sun-cooked west-facing slopes with no other avalanches observed.
NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald visited the Hurricane Ridge area 4/20 and reports no significant layers of concern within the snowpack and generally small cornices.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1