Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Small loose wet avalanches are possible as snow changes to rain on Sunday. Take care in steep extreme terrain exposed to terrain traps. Shallow storm or wind slabs are unlikely to develop in the Hurricane Ridge area Sunday but are possible in other parts of the Olympics. Early season hazards still exist.
Detailed Forecast
Light snow should begin Sunday morning with precipitation increasing in the afternoon, becoming locally moderate for the south facing slopes of the Olympics. Hurricane Ridge will be relatively rain-shadowed compared to the rest of the range, receiving a few inches of fresh snow before changing to rain by late morning or mid-day Sunday.Â
Small loose wet avalanches are possible as snow changes to rain on Sunday. Take care in steep extreme terrain exposed to terrain traps. Â
Shallow storm or wind slabs are unlikely to develop in the Hurricane Ridge area Sunday but are possible in other parts of the Olympics.Â
Early season hazards still exist. Many creek beds have still not filled in for the winter.
Snowpack Discussion
Light rain Friday did little to change the overall strong snowpack in the Hurricane Ridge area. Saturday saw a cooling trend but only a trace of new snow in the Hurricane Ridge area.Â
A strong and well settled snowpack exists throughout the area. Several days of above freezing temperatures in the Olympics has allowed any lingering shallow wind slabs to gain strength.
Layers can still be found in the upper snowpack, but current conditions and observations do not suggest that any of these layers will be of concern.
The height of snow across the terrain is quite variable. Numerous obstacles still exist at all elevations.
Observations
NWAC Pro Observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge Thursday, January 3rd. Matt reported a lack of surface crust in the area due to several days of above freezing temperatures and cloud cover. Travel conditions were reportedly quite good. Observations showed a strong and well bonded snowpack which was unlikely to be affected by the rain Friday. Matt noted the highly variable snow cover with snow heights changing as much as 50% in some places within just a few feet away.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1